The bookmaker cannot accurately assess the likelihood of an outcome, although analysts take into account many gaming and non-gaming factors. When analyzing unpopular championships, bookmakers may not know a number of parameters. Some outcomes are underestimated. Bets on them are called values.
The margin that the bookmaker has put into this event is 4.17%: (1.0417 - 1) x 100%. M = (S - 1) x 100%, where S is the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes of one market.įor example, in the duel Juventus - Milan, the bookmakers put up quotes: 1.60 for the hosts, 4.20 for a draw and 5.60 for the victory of the guests. We calculate the probability:Ĭalculate the margin: S = 1.0417: 0.625 + 0.2381 + 0.1786. Margin is the commission of the bookmaker company. Due to it, the bookmaker remains in profit. At the end of a match or tournament, the bookmaker may be in the red, but at a distance, the margin will bring the office to a plus.Ĭalculate the probability of an event using the formula:ĭetermine the size of the margin using the formula: Odds - the probability of the outcome, taking into account the bookmaker's margin.
Strategy is a systematic approach to financial management in sports betting. Mathematical sports betting is a comprehensive approach to betting based on outcome value and bank management strategy. In this article, we will analyze margin and value bets, as well as calculate the expected profit and the likelihood of a losing streak.
